Pass rate calculator · Futures & Forex
Know your odds. Plan your evaluation.
Put your strategy through the rules before paying for a challenge. Estimate pass probability, repeat attempts and evaluation fees with accounts from our tracked catalog.
01Catalog preset
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Evaluation account
Supplemental rules checked 2026-10-27: Evaluation objectives · Daily loss limit · Trailing floor lock. Checkout prices and fields marked untracked still need your review.
Understand the estimate.
The math is only as useful as the assumptions behind it.
01 / PROBABILITY
10,000 possible evaluations.
Each trade independently wins with your chosen probability, earning your average reward, or loses 1R. Risk stays fixed in dollars. All phases must pass; balances and rules reset each phase. These are model probabilities, not observed trader success rates.
02 / ATTEMPTS & FEES
Count the retries, too.
With per-attempt pass probability p, average attempts are 1/p and the chance of passing within n attempts is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. Expected evaluation fees are mean fee per attempt ÷ p, plus one known activation fee. Monthly fees count every started model month.
03 / RULE BOUNDARIES
A clear, simplified model.
Loss limits are checked after every closed trade; touching a limit counts as a breach. End-of-day floors move after each day; closed-trade floors move after each trade. Consistency uses best-day net profit ÷ total net profit and delays passing instead of failing the account.
What this model cannot tell you
The sampling interval measures Monte Carlo noise only. It does not account for uncertainty in your win rate, changing market conditions, correlated losses, variable position sizing or different win/loss distributions. A fixed seed makes unchanged scenarios repeatable.
Open-trade equity, excursions inside a trade, overnight positions, floating losses, time zones, contract limits, news restrictions, winning-day definitions and firm-specific rule exceptions are not simulated. Intraday equity drawdown can be breached before a trade closes, so the closed-trade approximation can overstate pass probability. Positive-day consistency denominators, daily limits based on overnight floating equity, and different rules between phases require a separate model. Some firms allow touching a limit; this model conservatively treats touching as a breach.
The default horizon is a planning cutoff per phase. Unfinished attempts are shown separately; repeat-attempt costs and timing assume they are abandoned and repurchased. Successful-attempt timing excludes failures; expected timing includes retries and excludes waiting between purchases. A model month is your chosen number of trading days, not an exact calendar billing period.
Missing rule fields require explicit inputs before a simulation can run. Source-link review dates do not certify the account values. Only the named supplemental rules were checked against official sources for this tool. Only USD evaluations with parseable targets, maximum loss and a supported drawdown model appear as presets. Instant funding has no evaluation to pass. Prices and rules may change; review the account's sources before purchasing.
Rule references: Topstep maximum loss mechanics and FTMO trading objectives . These explain rule differences; the selected preset comes from our catalog.
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